June 2008
Introduction
Within a few decades two problems of global proportions threaten
the way of life as we now know it in the United States. They are:
1. Global depletion of fossil fuel
2. Global Climate Change.
They are closely related; most scientists agree that the release of carbon into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuel in the past century has contributed in some degree to the present warming trend. What is more contentious is how much change will be produced in the future by burning the remaining reserves of fossil fuel, the true extent of which no one really knows. It has to be assumed that eventually all fossil fuel left on the planet will be consumed and the trapped molecular carbon released. If that is the case our only strategy is to control the rate of consumption or capture the carbon in some way. Many experts believe that global oil production has peaked, this means that supply cannot be significantly increased to meet increased demand from populous developing countries such as China and India. At present the US is the largest consumer of oil, thus increased competition for the remaining reserves will have a severe impact on this country. A strategy the US could adopt which would simultaneously address both these crises is to develop alternative energy sources which do not depend on fossil fuel This is an immense problem; the infrastructure that provides our energy needs from transportation fuels to electricity is enormously complex and cost uncountable billions over many decades, as will an alternative.
Conservation is an important element on the road to alternative energy sources. By developing energy efficient technologies we reduce the load that will eventually be supplied by alternative sources. It has been suggested that conservation will extend the life of the reserves and thus provide more time for the development of alternative technologies. This may not be true; conservation in the US will probably be offset on a world-wide basis by increased demand from other countries. But conservation could reduce imports, although to be strictly logical and ignoring economic and diplomatic implications, it may be preferable to consume oil and gas from other countries and conserve domestic reserves. In recent years hybrid cars have made some penetration into the automobile market. This is a good example of conservation; a more efficient machine to do the same task. Other technologies have also appeared such as cars powered by fuel cells using hydrogen and all-electric cars using batteries. Whether or not they conserve fossil fuel depends on where the hydrogen or electricity for charging comes from. Using ethanol as a fuel is discussed below. Conservation only saves energy, certainly a good thing, but it does not provide an alternative for our present life style.
Alternative Forms
of Energy
Two properties of the major fossil fuels; oil, natural gas and
coal, will make it very difficult to find 'plug-in' substitutes.
These are:
1. They are transportable and pack high energy content per unit
volume.
2. The energy is inherent; it was generated by Mother Nature millions
of years ago and stored until Man exploited it.
A significant fraction of the fossil fuel consumed in the US,
about a third, is converted to electricity. Our society has become
completely dependent on the reliable, stable delivery of electric
power. Several proposed alternative sources of energy would also
generate electricity, to be a viable alternative the electric
power generated this way must meet the same quality standards
as the present system. A limiting factor is imposed by the nature
of the electricity network; at any moment the power generated
and the power consumed are matched, there is no storage of electricity.
A small cushion for transient power fluctuations is provided by
the spinning momentum of the generators. In the future, increased
use may be made of electric power to displace fossil fuel in such
applications as space heating, rail transportation and even all-electric
automobiles. If this occurs, besides many more generating plants,
the transmission and distribution networks must be greatly expanded,
including a national transmission grid.
Renewable Energy
At present by far the most important renewable energy resource
is hydro-electricity. Most of the power generated this way comes
from massive dams such as the Tennessee Valley Authority and the
Bonneville Power Authority in the west. Unfortunately most of
the suitable sites in the US have already been developed and further
expansion would be difficult. There may be opportunity to develop
'low-head' hydro, but on the scale power is needed this would
be a small contribution. The large hydro installations in the
US have an attribute that is not provided by many other proposed
renewable sources; the power is available continuously, day and
night, rain or shine. Only a long period of severe drought can
compromise operations.
In the past decade or so, two renewable but intermittent sources of energy have been widely promoted; wind turbines and photovoltaic generators. Both provide electric power, but because the basic source of energy, wind and sunlight, are not fully under control of the operators the power does not meet the quality standards of the present system. In effect they can only be used if connected to a large grid so that the intermittent characteristic can be backed up by power drawn from other, fossil fuel fired, nuclear or hydro, generators. There are also stability problems associated with connecting myriad, widely dispersed relatively small generators to a network if their total power begins to approach the network capacity. Many of these drawbacks also apply to other ideas under review such as tidal and wave generators and solar steam boilers, even designs with limited (diurnal) energy storage. These constraints mean that such sources must be regarded as a form of conservation, possibly quite useful and able to make a contribution, but not a genuine alternative.
Another renewable source which has been heavily subsidized to bring it to market is biomass. Of course, in centuries past, wood was mankind's most common source of heating, but the goal of modern biomass production is to replace fossil fuel with ethanol, obtained by fermentation or with oil from plants. In Brazil a national effort has resulted in significant displacement of gasoline for autos using sugar cane as the feedstock. The US, much further north with less solar radiation, has embarked on a similar program using corn as the feedstock with less success. The energy available from the final product is not much different than the energy invested in its production. On the downside is the loss of agricultural land for food production and the water needed for irrigation.
Non-fossil Primary
Energy Sources
'Primary' means the power is available on a continuous basis and
can be closely controlled. In a few areas of the US the hot magma
of the earth's core is close enough to the surface to provide
steam for turbines. In Iceland most of the energy consumed by
the relatively small population is derived from this source, the
opportunity to exploit sites in the US on the scale needed for
significant contribution to national energy needs is much more
limited. Apart from hydro, referred to earlier, the largest provider
of non-fossil energy is fission of uranium. Nuclear power plants
have been operating very successfully in the US for more than
thirty years. Some, in fact, are reaching the end of their design
life. Just as fossil energy represents the power produced by the
sun millions of years ago, fission energy originated in the heart
of stars billions of years ago. Current reactor designs, called
'thermal' reactors, are not very efficient at extracting the energy
in the nucleus; when the fuel becomes unusable more than 99% of
the possible energy is still locked in the waste. Therein lies
the problem; safe disposal of such radioactive waste is difficult
and highly contentious. The reserves of economically available
uranium for thermal reactors will probably not significantly outlast
fossil fuel reserves. A few trial reactors have been constructed
throughout the world that mitigate these problems. Known as breeders
they use a different fission mode than thermal reactors. Much
more of the available energy in the uranium nucleus is extracted
and waste volume is greatly reduced because they could burn the
residual waste of thermal reactors. Possibly the waste will not
need to be safely secreted for millennia because it will be much
less radioactive, but more development is needed. Uranium reserves
to operate breeders would last for centuries. Finally we turn
to fusion reactors, which would fuse hydrogen nuclei into helium
and release energy in the process. Despite decades of research
a continuous fusion reaction has not yet been achieved. Even if
this finally occurs on an experimental basis the design of a power
plant would require significant development. This source of primary
energy is many years away from practical realization, but may
represent hope for future generations.
A National Strategy
It is impossible to predict the future, but a strategy can be
formulated based on events which are highly likely to occur. It
is very likely that oil and natural gas production will not rise
significantly in the future and increased demand for these products
will force up the cost. Eventually demand will seriously outstrip
production and unless alternative energy sources and infrastructure
are in place by then there will be major disruptions of our way
of life. This scenario will not occur overnight, but construction
of alternative energy sources using existing technology must start
immediately, these can then be phased in as oil and gas reserves
fade away. We have not mentioned coal, which could provide electric
power for over a century, albeit with high carbon emission, and
might well represent the final gasp of fossil fuel energy production
for our grandchildren. There is some irony in this as coal kicked
off the industrial revolution and started mankind on the profligate
use of energy.
Before listing the technical
options which must be pursued there are two issues which have
to be resolved and are outside the scope of this position paper:
1. The ordering of national priorities. Even the US has a finite
budget. A balance must be achieved to use our financial, intellectual
and material resources to preserve national defense, start the
construction of alternative energy sources and greatly expand
R&D in this field. At the same time our commitment to existing
social services such as medical care, social security and welfare
must be maintained.
2. Plan and implement a National Alternative Energy Program. This
organization must coordinate private and public spending on a
huge scale; it must have plenipotentiary authority not seen since
WWII. Individuals and corporations are motivated by self interest;
the organization must ensure private self interest is not in conflict
with the national goal, that is, the lobbyists must be kept at
bay. A realistic assessment of remaining fossil fuel reserves
must be prepared in conjunction with a plan for timely introduction
of alternative sources.
A Plan of Immediate Action
Final Thoughts
The era of cheap energy is ending. It brought the population of
the USA, and many other countries, a standard of living never
before seen in history. With clear thinking, a national will,
and lots of money we can overcome our addiction for fossil fuel
and build a society that will maintain the way of life we have
come to regard as normal. If we don't, our children will look
back on the last hundred years as a golden age. America has some
of the finest scientists and engineers in the world, with courageous
leadership there is no reason why we cannot meet this challenge.
May 2008
February 2008
THE DRIVE FOR SPONSORSHIP
There is considerable competition for sponsorship these days. Well-known companies receive thousands of requests for sponsorship every year. Many now work through an internet sponsor site that imposes a standard format for the requests, reviews the event or cause and forwards them to the corporation which in their opinion would be most interested. In the past two months the following companies have been approached with detailed formal proposals to support the Green Ocean Race, some using the website 'Sponsorwise'.
1. Areva (French manufacturer of
nuclear reactors and sponsor of several ocean races)--no reply.
2. Environmental Defense Fund--no reply.
3. General Motors--replied, but they're not interested
in the GOR.
4. Toyota North America--replied and suggested a more detailed
submittal.
5. Motorola (sponsors some boats in ocean races)--Replied
with a "no interest" in the GOR.
6. Cadillac Motors (developer of the Provoq hybrid/electric)--no
reply
7. Google--no reply.
Any suggestions on possible sponsors gratefully
received.
SOME VIDEOS TO GET YOU THINKING
Although the purpose of the website is to promote the GOR I am
inevitably getting a good deal of feedback about the looming energy
crisis. I can recommend two videos for those seriously interested
in our energy future:
1. A CRUDE AWAKENING, made by Basil Gelpke and Ray McCormack, Lava Productions, AG, Switzerland. This fascinating video covers the history of oil exploitation, prediction of oil reserves and the future. Numerous interviews are conducted with geologists, scientists, Arabian ministers and even a US Congressman.
2. NOBODY'S FUEL, made by Douglas Lightfoot, visit www.nobodysfuel.com . Mr. Lightfoot suggests that securing a sustainable energy future is even more important than climate change. He reviews various alternative energy sources and proposes that a crucial step is to develop fast breeder reactors.
Both videos are sobering and agree that
we have little time left to solve the problem if we are to avoid
severe disruption to our accepted way of life. Google the titles for more information, I
believe the videos can be ordered from the makers or from Netflix.
January 2008
JOYON SHATTERS ROUND THE WORLD RECORD
At the age of 51, Francis Joyon is once again the fastest solo yachtsman around the world, having completed his non-stop record attempt in 57 days, 13 hours, 34 minutes and 6 seconds. He has shattered the previous record, held since 2005 by the British yachtswoman, Ellen MacArthur by 14 days, 44 minutes and 27 seconds. Joyon and the 97-foot IDEC trimaran crossed the finishing line off Brest on Sunday 20th January 2008 at 00h39'58. Onboard IDEC, Francis Joyon covered more than 26,400 nautical miles at an average speed of 19.09 knots. Throughout the passage, IDEC sailed “cleanly," without the use of any fossil fuel (no engine), generating its own energy with a wind turbine and solar panels.
Francis Joyon becomes the only solo sailor in the world to have established the non-stop single-handed round the world voyage record aboard a multihull on two occasions (first set in 2004). Additionally, Joyon’s passage achieved the second best time ever for sailing around the world, including crewed voyages! Joyon surpassed the crewed record set by Steve Fossett’s giant Cheyenne (58 days, 9 hours and 32 minutes in April 2004), with only the crew of Bruno Peyron’s maxi-catamaran Orange II still holding the outright record in just over 50 days.
Joyon's Site
View Photos Here
Curmudgeon’s Comment: Joyon’s program was criticized early on by the English speaking press, as his sponsor apparently did not see the need to translate their daily updates from French. However, as the success of his effort became imminent, the updates started coming in English too. Now, his team has provided a blow-by-blow account of Joyon’s record-setting voyage…in English.
Read here
November 2007
Captain Forsyth manned a desk a desk at the annual convention
of the Seven Seas Cruising Association in Melbourne, Florida,
November 9 through 11, 2007. He caught the attention of visitors
by running past cruise videos on the laptop and passed out flyers
containing the details of the proposed race.
